GOM World Cup Diary #6: Why Do We Bother With Experts?
Yesterday I was told Spain would comfortably beat Cape Verde.
The experts said so.
The statistics said so.
The betting markets said so.
The computer models said so.
Then Cape Verde went and drew 0-0.
Belgium were apparently going to brush Egypt aside.
The experts said so.
The statistics said so.
The betting markets said so.
The computer models said so.
Then Egypt went and drew 1-1.
Which raises an important question.
If football keeps ignoring experts, why do we have quite so many of them?
When I was younger, an expert was somebody who’d spent forty years doing something.
Now an expert is somebody with a touchscreen and a coloured graphic.
Before every match we’re shown percentages, probabilities, expected goals, predictive algorithms and enough data to launch a space programme.
Then twenty-two footballers run onto a pitch and completely ignore all of it.
Which is why I love football.
If the favourites always won, we’d save ourselves a month and hand the trophy over after the opening ceremony.
Instead, every tournament produces a Cape Verde.
An Egypt.
A team that wasn’t supposed to read the script.
And somewhere this morning there will be a football analyst staring at six computer screens wondering why reality refuses to cooperate.
Personally, I think that’s wonderful.
Football is one of the last places where hope still occasionally beats certainty.
Even if it does make experts look slightly nervous.
Anyway, what do I know?
I’m just a grumpy old man.
What’s your take on ail these so-called experts? Drop a comment below — I read every one.
